Who Will Win the 2012 Presidential Debates?

In your opinion, who will win the 2012 presidential debates? If you ask anyone at CNN, they will tell you that Obama already has this election wrapped up.  CNN recently conducted a poll asking their readers who they think will win the first presidential debate October 3, and not surprisingly, their readers believe Obama is going to win the debates.  59% of people in their survey believe Obama is likely to do better than Romney in the debates, while another 34% believe that Romney can win these debates.

More on who will win the 2012 presidential debates!

These numbers don’t make any sense.  Romney has recent debate experience.  He has extensive debate experience from his time running in the Republican primaries, and if he didn’t know how to debate, he would not have won the Republican nomination.  The facts suggest that Romney has an excellent chance to win the presidential debates.

The first debate is supposed to focus on economic issues, and President Obama is especially vulnerable in this area.  Unemployment rates are up since 2008.  The President rejected the Keystone XL Pipeline, and this could have created millions of jobs for Americans.  Major defense cuts that are going to take effect at the beginning of 2013 could lay off up to 2.14 million American workers.  This number includes people who work directly for the Federal Government, as well as private contractors who have contracts with the defense department who will be out of work too if the Federal Government lays off their other workers.

Mitt Romney should also focus on the looming new taxes that are set to begin January 1.  Sure, the Bush-era tax cuts are set to expire, but then there are all of the new Obamacare taxes too.  The Supreme Court ruled that Obamacare is constitutional simply because it is indeed a tax, so Romney can go after Obama on this.  It has been estimated that the average American family will be paying thousands of dollars per year in additional taxes, and Romney has failed to go after Obama on these issues.

Since Romney should bring up Obamacare and the coinciding taxes in the debates, he can talk about the new healthcare law too.  Polls still show that a majority of Americans oppose the new healthcare law, and voting for Romney gives Americans one last chance to overturn the legislation.  Mitt Romney has not addressed Obamacare as often as expected, and he could win more votes by simply reminding Americans that he will push to repeal Obamacare if he is elected President of the United States.

While some people believe he will push to repeal the new healthcare laws, many conservatives already believe it is too late to make a difference.  Romney needs to tell his base again that he will make the sacrifices that are needed to make the United States a great country again.

Lastly, Romney needs to try to dispel the notion among liberals that the economy is growing again.  Statistics suggest otherwise, but most liberals actually believe the economy is improving.  This could not be any further from the truth.  The statistics clearly show that the economy is barely growing, and we may actually be entering a double dip recession.

 

 

Predictions for 2012 Presidential Election – Possible Scenarios in the Presidential Elections

At the time of this writing, it is still pretty early in the race for the presidency.  As far as the predictions for 2012 Presidential election results, there are several scenarios that could play out this year.  President Obama is going to run for President again, and at the time of this writing, Mitt Romney appears to have the presidential nomination locked up for the Republican Party.  As a result, we will assume these are the main candidates.

I am going to make several major predictions for the 2012 presidential election.  One of these will come true!

Prediction 1:  Obama could win in a landslide victory.

It seems like this is not even possible right now, but I do believe that Barack Obama could win re-election in 2012 by a huge margin.  We have already seen how candidates can quickly gain and lose momentum in the Republican primaries.  Probably the best example we have seen of how this can happen is with Herman Cain.  When the Republican debates first started, Cain’s popularity exploded.  He led in the polls for a short time, and then the allegations of sexual harassment and affairs started popping up.  Within weeks, Cain was out of the race.

If Romney’s financial records are released in the spring, and there are any major inconsistencies within his tax returns, then he could lose a lot of support within his own party.

The other major issue is that Romney is much more moderate than most of the other Republican challengers.  When conservatives learn that Romney has supported many liberal causes throughout his history, there are going to be many more conservative Republicans who refuse to vote for him in the elections.

Prediction 2: Obama wins after a third party splits the Republican vote.

Of all of the predictions for the 2012 presidential election, this frightens Republicans the most.  Romney is simply not a strong conservative candidate.  He does not get the conservative base excited, and the Tea Party does not support him either.  As a result, the odds of getting a third party candidate are increasing by the day.

Ron Paul has refused to completely rule out the possibility of running as a third party candidate.  He ran in 2008 as a third party candidate, and he could run again.  Paul has more support than he had in 2008, and that means he could seriously damage the chances of a Republican winning the presidency in 2012.

Prediction 3: Romney wins because of the economy

The jobs numbers and other economic data will play a major role in whether Obama gets reelected at the end of the year.  With high unemployment numbers, he will have a hard time convincing Americans that he knows how to turn around the economy.  Blaming Bush is not going to help him win this time.  Romney is going to get a lot of people to vote for him simply because they are voting for “anyone but Obama”.

Prediction 4: Romney wins because another candidate runs against Obama.

Obama is a weak candidate too.  It is entirely possible that someone else could split the Democrat ticket.  If someone splits the Democrat ticket, then the election victory goes to Romney.

These are my predictions for the 2012 presidential election.  One of these scenarios will happen!

 

What Is Obama’s Approval Rating and What This Means for 2012

What is Obama’s approval rating?  At the time of this writing, his approval rating is sitting at 43% according to the latest Gallup polls.  His rating has stayed relatively the same over the last couple months since he hit new lows in late summer.  Most polls show him polling in the high 30s or low 40s, and this is pretty low for a President who is running for reelection next year.  His policies have been widely unpopular among many people for many months now.  Many steadfast Democrats are sticking by Obama, but many of his detractors believe he is vulnerable in the 2012 elections.

There are many reasons why his poll numbers are so low.  The biggest reason his poll numbers are so low is because of the stagnant economy.  People are out of work.  They have seen their retirement accounts evaporate.  Some people who are retired from companies with pensions have seen their pensions disappear into thin air as some businesses go under.  While some people still have jobs, they may be underemployed or simply not making as much since the recession hit.

To make matters worse, the same people who aren’t making as much money may be stuck in a house they can’t sell because they are underwater on their mortgage.  The housing market is another big reason why Obama has a low approval rating.  It is estimated that one out of every four mortgages is underwater today, and that means many people don’t have the buying power that they had years ago.  This also means that people that need to have the flexibility to relocate won’t be able to move, and this puts many construction workers out of work too.

What is Obama’s approval rating going to be if he gets reelected in 2012?  It will continue to be low if the threat of higher taxes and new healthcare regulations continue to hinder small business growth.  It is estimated that there are billions of dollars that are not being invested in the United States economy today because corporations don’t know what the economic landscape is going to be a year from now or two years from now.  Congress keeps passing new economic resolutions instead of passing a finalized budget, so the waters are murky for corporations trying to make business decisions for the future.

The new healthcare laws are also hurting Obama’s approval ratings.  There are considerable questions about how many of the new regulations will actually go into effect, so businesses are very hesitant to hire new workers.  They don’t understand how much more expensive it will be to pay the healthcare costs for all of their employees.

As far as the 2012 elections are concerned, the eventual GOP nominee is going to have an excellent chance to unseat Obama if his approval ratings continue to be low.  If the elections were today, many of the exit polls suggest Obama could lose in a landslide defeat.  What is Obama’s approval rating going to be in 2012?  Once 2012 arrives, we should have a better indication of whether he can win a 2^nd term.