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Will Obama Be a Two Term President?

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Will Obama be a two term President?  For all of the terrible legislation that has been passed over his term, it is still possible he is going to win reelection in 2012.  Even though the polls have shown that Romney could beat Obama in November, these polls can change very quickly.  This has been evidenced recently by the Republican primary polls.  Romney has led the Republican vote most of the time, but several other candidates have surged in the polls over the last several months.

According to the Rasmussen polls as of February 6, Obama is leading over Romney in polls for the general election.  Obama leads Romney 49 to 42 % in the latest polls, and there are reasons why Obama could become a two-term President.

Improving Economy

Historically, the economy improves during election years.  People are more optimistic about the future, and members of the House of Representatives are concerned about getting reelected to their seat.  Some senators will be up for reelection, so they don’t want to do anything to tick off their voter base.  This means that legislators aren’t going to pass any crazy legislation this year that voters won’t like.

Most people forget about the past.  They aren’t going to think about the unemployment rate when it was over 9%.  People who are undecided about the election will only see the unemployment rate today. Some conservatives have noted that the unemployment rate seems to be dropping with the number of available jobs dropping, suggesting that the Obama administration is cooking the numbers to make them look better.  Whether it is true or not, most undecided voters are not going to believe that anyone would really manipulate statistics to look better.

Obama Is the Incumbent

Many people will vote for President Obama again simply because he is already in office.  Statistically, incumbents usually win reelection.  This does not always hold true, but Obama definitely has an advantage here.

Obama Has Strong Support Among Minorities

Obama gets strong support among minority groups across the United States.  It is going to be difficult for Republicans to win these voters.  Republicans don’t appear to have any candidates who are capable of getting many voters among minority classes.

Republicans Don’t Have a Strong Candidate

None of the remaining Republican candidates are strong candidates.  Conservatives are not especially excited about Romney, and evangelicals don’t like Gingrich’s past troubles and infidelity issues.  The party base is not energized about any of their Republican candidates.  This can only help Obama in the next election.

Will Obama be a two term President?  It depends on many factors, and I think it also depends on how Romney performs in the debates.  Obama is going to have a lot more money for advertising than Romney in the general election, and that could cause some problems for Romney as election day approaches.  The negative campaigns against Romney will be much more pronounced than they will be against Obama, so Romney will have to make the most of the money he has.  Will Obama be a two term President?  As a conservative, I sure hope not, but we will see what happens.