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Predictions for 2012 Presidential Election – Possible Scenarios in the Presidential Elections

17 Jan

At the time of this writing, it is still pretty early in the race for the presidency.  As far as the predictions for 2012 Presidential election results, there are several scenarios that could play out this year.  President Obama is going to run for President again, and at the time of this writing, Mitt Romney appears to have the presidential nomination locked up for the Republican Party.  As a result, we will assume these are the main candidates.

I am going to make several major predictions for the 2012 presidential election.  One of these will come true!

Prediction 1:  Obama could win in a landslide victory.

It seems like this is not even possible right now, but I do believe that Barack Obama could win re-election in 2012 by a huge margin.  We have already seen how candidates can quickly gain and lose momentum in the Republican primaries.  Probably the best example we have seen of how this can happen is with Herman Cain.  When the Republican debates first started, Cain’s popularity exploded.  He led in the polls for a short time, and then the allegations of sexual harassment and affairs started popping up.  Within weeks, Cain was out of the race.

If Romney’s financial records are released in the spring, and there are any major inconsistencies within his tax returns, then he could lose a lot of support within his own party.

The other major issue is that Romney is much more moderate than most of the other Republican challengers.  When conservatives learn that Romney has supported many liberal causes throughout his history, there are going to be many more conservative Republicans who refuse to vote for him in the elections.

Prediction 2: Obama wins after a third party splits the Republican vote.

Of all of the predictions for the 2012 presidential election, this frightens Republicans the most.  Romney is simply not a strong conservative candidate.  He does not get the conservative base excited, and the Tea Party does not support him either.  As a result, the odds of getting a third party candidate are increasing by the day.

Ron Paul has refused to completely rule out the possibility of running as a third party candidate.  He ran in 2008 as a third party candidate, and he could run again.  Paul has more support than he had in 2008, and that means he could seriously damage the chances of a Republican winning the presidency in 2012.

Prediction 3: Romney wins because of the economy

The jobs numbers and other economic data will play a major role in whether Obama gets reelected at the end of the year.  With high unemployment numbers, he will have a hard time convincing Americans that he knows how to turn around the economy.  Blaming Bush is not going to help him win this time.  Romney is going to get a lot of people to vote for him simply because they are voting for “anyone but Obama”.

Prediction 4: Romney wins because another candidate runs against Obama.

Obama is a weak candidate too.  It is entirely possible that someone else could split the Democrat ticket.  If someone splits the Democrat ticket, then the election victory goes to Romney.

These are my predictions for the 2012 presidential election.  One of these scenarios will happen!

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